Colorectal cancer in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan and its association with meteorological conditions and vehicle emissions

Introduction. Episodes of air pollution are associated with climate variability, in particular with changes in the intensity and distribution of extreme weather events that affect the environment. Getting into the gastrointestinal tract, air pollutants can interact with the intestinal epithelium, contributing to the development of intestinal diseases, including colorectal cancer (CRC).
Aim. Aim of the study is to identify patterns of CRC incidence in the population of the Republic of Tatarstan (RT) and its dependence on meteorological variables and phenomena, as well as the mass of vehicle emissions.
Materials and methods. The following materials were used as initial data: on CRC incidence, data from the Cancer Register of the Republican Clinical Oncology Dispensary of the RT for the period of 2007–2023; on emissions into the atmosphere, data from the “State reports on the state of natural resources and on environmental protection of the Republic of Tatarstan” of the Ministry of Ecology and Natural Resources of the RT; on meteorological variables and phenomena, data from the Federal Agency for Hydrometeorology and Environmental Monitoring of the Russian Federation.
Results. An uneven distribution of colorectal cancer incidence is observed across the territory of the RT. A high level of colorectal cancer incidence was identified in the cities of Kazan and Naberezhnye Chelny: 55 cases per 100,000 population, while in the Cheremshan and Alekseevsky districts the value was 36 cases per 100,000 population. This research resulted in construction of a model that describes the relationship between the incidence rates of colorectal cancer, total emissions into the atmosphere, and the meteorological potential of atmospheric pollution. A forecast of colorectal cancer incidence for the period of 2025–2030 has been made, according to which with a probability of 95 % a decrease in the incidence of colorectal cancer to 37 cases per 100,000 population, which is close to the level of 2007, can be expected.
Conclusion. The obtained results can be used in planning measures to reduce the incidence of colorectal cancer in the population.

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